Coronavirus conversations

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mac

janitor

Any potential vaccine will have to be tested and assessed in some way. Azithromycin may prove effective but it hasn't been properly tested.

That newspaper article reported:
"Azithromycin has produced positive outcomes in some cases of Covid-19, particularly where there has been pneumonia and respiratory failure. In other cases results have been inconclusive, according to a HSE bulletin on its use, dated April 2nd.

Prepared by the Covid-19 rapid evidence review group, the bulletin reports on two studies on the use of azithromycin with hydrochloraquin.

It states: “There are inconsistencies in the study findings, with one study in 80 patients reporting broadly positive outcomes from the combination therapy, including negative viral load in 83 per cent of the cohort on day seven, while another study in 11 patients concluded there is no evidence of rapid anti-viral clearance or clinical benefit.”

The Irish College of General Practitioners was not concerned at the ban on azithromycin for Covid-19 patients outside hospital. There is currently no evidence to support using any antibiotic to treat viral Covid-19 in patients in the community who are otherwise healthy...We do not need access to azithromycin for treatment of viral Covid-19 in the community.”


In my view at this point the efficacy of any treatment is uncertain and will need careful observation. Techniques will likely need refinement I feel.

As I wrote earlier, there appears to be no certain prospect of an effective treatment or a vaccine emerging in any foreseeable future - at the moment we can only hope.

Based on previous experience experts suggest it may need 12 to 18 months to develop and mass produce vaccine if all goes well but maybe things will happen more quickly. Who knows?

As I wrote on Roberta's blog recently, I hope for the best but try to be prepared for something less.....
 

mac

janitor
As the days pass governments and other legislative bodies discuss, debate, consult, argue and agonize how best to deal with this pandemic. None of them can be sure that what they decide will be the least-bad alternative. Every plan will be wrong for some, right for some, potentially OKish for the rest. We could all probably think of worse case / best case outcomes and the likelihood is that the eventual outcome will be somewhere in-between those extremes.

The more I follow the science the more I'm sure of one thing. Our world won't ever go back to where it was BC - in a very great number of ways rather than just a few. Some will be glad about that but they will also expect an improved, perhaps more spiritual world, that will emerge to replace the old one - hmmmm, I fear they'll be disappointed.

Something that looks highly likely is that Covid 19 will remain a threat to public health indefinitely. With any luck effective treatments for those most badly affected will emerge but a vaccine may not be developed or not developed in time and/or the virus may mutate - as viruses often do. Just as with influenza, some individuals will be made very sick by Covid 19 and some will die. Others won't but just as with other viruses there's no certainty survivors will have immunity afterwards.

At this point it appears avoiding becoming infected will be the least risky path for all of us. The logistics for that have yet to be developed but keeping one's distance - the optimum still to be worked out - looks likely to remain the front line approach. That and us all wearing face masks when we're near others. The masks each of us wears will help avoid infecting everyone we are near; the ones they wear will help them avoid infecting us.

In time we'll figure out how careful we individually need to be with those we encounter but for now 'an abundance of caution' is the right path - as I see things.
 

Ruby

Regular Contributor
It's surprising how quickly seas and skies have become cleaner and nature has returned. Animals are quick to take advantage but I didn't expect to see deer in the streets. I find it unsettling somehow. I wonder how we'll all feel about getting back to our old polluting ways?
 

mac

janitor
It's surprising how quickly seas and skies have become cleaner and nature has returned.

What you may be noticing is superficial albeit better than nothing. There's a huge mass of pollution already in both systems and that won't clear for a very long time. One short-lived benefit is that streets and roads will be less polluted by traffic. I say "short-lived" because traffic levels will soon begin - have already begun in the UK - to increase. Maybe to levels a little less than BC but inexorably back towards where we used to be once folk return to work and to less abnormal patterns of life. The natural world of plants and animals will benefit for a while because we're doing less to impact it - for now.


Animals are quick to take advantage but I didn't expect to see deer in the streets. I find it unsettling somehow. I wonder how we'll all feel about getting back to our old polluting ways?

Deer will wander anywhere they're able to but when less-abnormal levels of traffic resume I expect fewer will be seen. I don't see deer as I live in a town but out in the boonies we see 'em on occasion and anywhere they're being farmed, like at Chatsworth - follow the link, take a look at the video, come and visit. Park & estate

I'd like to see us not returning to all of our polluting ways but that's an issue that will have to take second place to the immediate impacts of this pandemic. And dealing with those alone will result in us paying higher taxes. Reducing pollution levels will lead to higher taxation too. :(

C'est la vie, c'est la guerre.....
 

mac

janitor
It looks like the next couple of weeks will be testing times as restrictions are eased or lifted. Countries are using very different approaches, some very conservative others much more liberal. Statistics and modeling have become everyday news, at least in the UK and daily on TV our leaders explain their latest discussions and consultations and take questions from journalists and news reporters - every weekday and on Sunday approaching our PM will outline some easing of the lock-down in the UK. Then teams of specialists will closely monitor new infections and deaths and along with an app (presently under evaluation) and hundreds of individuals to trace-and-track contacts of anyone reporting symptoms the UK will try to limit the spread of the virus.

We're expecting sound science will be leading our way out of the general lock down so that business, industry and education can all begin the long process of getting properly going again. And in all of this there is no perceptible spiritual consideration to any part of anything. I'm just sayin'.....
 

Kurt

Major Contributor
It's natural for humankind to worry about anything that appears to be a threat. We're hard-wired to do that after all and those who remain close to the earth plane will naturally pick up our anxieties. Telling us not to worry is pointless because worrying isn't a choice we make - events cause us to worry. We don't choose to worry and may be emotionally unable to stop. It's as pointless as telling someone who isn't a worrier to become one, to start worrying.




That's good to hear when so many are experiencing major difficulties.





Speaking only for myself I've never been concerned about this world coming to an end but I hope Mikey's words may reassure those who are. But this virus appears to be a significant threat to the lives we've led up to this point and the world we've grown to know. How the world's populations reacts remains to be seen. It would be great to know we're all gonna work together, that national governments are gonna co-operate with others and with NGOs, that rivalries of all kinds will be set aside, that big businesses will abandon their bottom line and turn to producing what is immediately needed in vast, and expensive, quantities. And that all will work together to deal with this virus. Even as I'm writing it sounds like pie-in-the-sky and a huge sea-change would be needed for even some of those aspects to come to fruition!



Thanks for that reassurance because elsewhere I've read suggestions/intimations it might have been. That sounded nonsense to me and Mikey's words seem to confirm it.



I see it as a re-balancing in a world whose values need re-balancing. Not cleansing this virus but quarantining it followed by a 'reboot' of the operating system. Quite whether that will happen on account of Covid 19 remains to be seen and 'short-termism' may continue - get through the immediate crisis, get things settled down and then 'back-to-business'. Unless I'm mistaken one prominent individual is already advocating that in a matter of weeks albeit not in so many words.





Putting it that way makes it sound like the stuff 'hippy new-agers' spout on about. Such words mean little to average Joe's and Josephine's battling their way through incarnate life. What the next generations would more likely respond to is a call for us to stop trashing this world and to adopt more socialist values - that would include nations funding research and paying for what's needed. And that means the average gal and guy paying more tax because money doesn't grow on trees.

Beyond those last points I won't go because we don't do political (or religious) discussions on ALF. ;) Try Twitter if you're so minded.





Yes it could but we'll have to wait to see if - and by how much in the longer term - it actually will.




One of the biggest recent pandemics was the so-called Spanish Flu. The CDC indicates about 500 million were infected worldwide and 50 million died. The present situation is different for the moment but that could change rapidly. Yes we should be better placed to respond to Covid 19 but there's no guarantee we'll do better.



It remains to be seen whether humankind is more prepared and better able to respond to this threat.



As with all apparently-negative events there will also be positive outcomes, both of them resulting in spiritual growth. We who are privileged to understand that situation are in a better position to respond differently from those who don't. Whether there's enough of us to significantly alter the shape of the future is moot; mac isn't optimistic but would be delighted to be wrong.



As so often it's a yes and/or maybe situation - death because of the virus may be a potential exit point but it may not. My layman view is that for the majority it won't be because Mikey has indicated there was no spirit orchestration of the current situation.


ps As previously I'll shortly be moving my responses out of this C&M Q&A thread so that it's mostly just Mikey's words that will be seen here.

It's quite hard to predict the future indeed however I also have personally come to regard it as a earthly cleansing of sorts. The implications of this virus on contemporary history could be extremely drastic... It honestly could lead to a repeat of the first half of the 20th century in a absolute worst case scenario.
 

Kurt

Major Contributor
It's surprising how quickly seas and skies have become cleaner and nature has returned. Animals are quick to take advantage but I didn't expect to see deer in the streets. I find it unsettling somehow. I wonder how we'll all feel about getting back to our old polluting ways?
The rivers in my area are beginning to look crystal clear.
 

mac

janitor
Two weeks on, my birthday just passed and about 9 weeks into lock-down since I made my last comment and much has changed.

In the US there are nearly 40 million out of work and states are winding in markedly the restrictions imposed earlier - or at least some states are. Similar is happening in Europe and the east to varying degrees and all are hoping there won't be a break-out of the virus along with the need to re-impose restrictions. In the next few weeks we'll see the outcomes.

Elsewhere work is flat out trying to create a vaccine and/or effective treatment of those who get infected and have severe symptoms. Crackpot ideas have been put forward and dismissed as unproven and potentially dangerous. In the main scientific advice is being heeded, death-rates are falling in medical institutions but in care homes things are far from rosy. Already politicians are attacking other politicians and organisations for perceived failures and lack of awareness etc. - plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose....

Unity of purpose is there at local level but it's beginning to fragment on a national scale. There have been some positive outcomes - eg less pollution - but many negative aspects and more in prospect. Travel is still severely impacted with social distancing issues restricting vehicle capacity ie trains, planes, buses, trams In the UK hospitality businesses are mostly closed, the few operating are providing 'to-go' or delivery service.

Folk can travel but must return to their registered home address the same day. There are no hotels, restaurants, pubs, bars or cafes open. Many shops and stores remain closed, online shopping is the way folk are buying. Delivery services are busy. Attractions are closed, some open spaces and parks are open.

Resorts are discouraging visitors to avoid the risk of their becoming a local virus hotspot with limited local services becoming overwhelmed after a major influx of visitors. Resort car parks and toilets are closed and this public holiday weekend police will be mobilising patrols to turn away vehicles on routes to the coast. The message "We'd love you to visit but not yet." is one increasingly being put out by tourist boards.

I don't know what's happening now I'm no longer in the USA because no-one is reporting here about their local situation.
 

ravensgate

Regular Contributor
I can only speak for NE Texas and the Little Rock regions. Cases are continuing to rise in NE Tx. Over 60 new cases in Titus county. Dallas county had an average of 200 new confirmed cases per week (over the last few weeks).
Although there is much we do not know about this particular virus, I am baffled at the widespread willful ignorance and arrogance of many people in this area. It seems many of these people equated the loosening restrictions to a (magic) disappearance of the virus! Just this morning I noticed the good ol' Walmart and Sam's Club parking lots filled with cars, people going in and out of those stores as if every piece of merchandise and food could be had for zero dollars; nearly every person I saw wore no face mask. I continue to wear mine and will continue to do so for a quite a while longer.
One day the COVID 19 dust will settle; we will then perhaps understand how little we really need and how much we actually have. I hope that realization (if it happens) will bring humanity closer, but I'm not holding my breath!
 

mac

janitor
I fear there will be new outbreaks but there's so much antipathy toward social distancing that it may prove impossible to get folk doing what they did - reluctantly - the first time.

Face masks are as yet unproven for the general public's widespread use. I wear one because it helps protect others but here in the UK few others wear them. In fairness they've been in short supply and our government has been desperate to encourage folk not to buy masks and effectively be in competition with our medical and care services who are only just finding enough for themselves.

In time I'm expecting/hoping that we'll all be encouraged to wear medical grade masks so when someone doesn't wear a mask the ones who do will have a measure of protection against any bugs they breathe out unhindered. I foresee that as essential to get public transport working again properly (lots of public transport in the UK) and also in getting air travel underway again. Maybe eventually no mask will mean no travel until some unforeseeable point when there's a minimal risk from this deadly virus.
 

bluebird

Major Contributor
We all should be wearing facemasks -- the problem is that there aren't enough of them, especially of the medical grade masks.

Unless an effective vaccine is created, I honestly don't think the world will ever come back from this.
 

bluebird

Major Contributor
How are you?
Stay safe! Here in sweden we dont use mask.
You should be; Sweden has a higher rate of infection than the other Scandi/Nordic countries, due to not wearing masks. (Not that the U.S. is doing well, as the world knows -- too many idiots in our country who refuse to believe in science and facts.)
 

mac

janitor
You should be; Sweden has a higher rate of infection than the other Scandi/Nordic countries, due to not wearing masks. (Not that the U.S. is doing well, as the world knows -- too many idiots in our country who refuse to believe in science and facts.)

I'm not confident infection levels are down solely to not wearing face coverings, bb.

I don't study the situation there but have seen reports on BBC TV about how Sweden has approached the situation. If I remember correctly there's been less emphasis on not mixing socially, less emphasis on maintaining adequate distance etc. Not wearing face coverings can't improve things but may not make them significantly worse in close-contacts situations.

Increasingly the message in the UK is that prolonged close association with someone infected is the main risk. I've often heard 15 minutes at a yard/metre as a rule-of-thumb. Whether wearing a face covering would decrease the risk in such circumstances I don't know.

edit: I found the following in my Inbox after writing the above:

"We have started to see a decline in COVID-19 cases in many states and I firmly believe this can be attributed to good behaviors such as masking to help reduce the spread.

For this reason, I'm writing today to inform you that Banner Health is strongly opposed to any decision or consideration to relax existing mask mandates. Evidence has shown us masking mandates have worked to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Although the number of cases have decreased, we must not let up and should continue following recommendations such as masking, social distancing and other protective measures to ensure we don't reverse gains in slowing the spread.

Not only is COVID-19 still prevalent in our community, but flu season is upon us, which means continuing to mask and getting vaccinated is more important than ever to keep you, your loved ones and our communities safe.

Our work is not done, so I encourage you to be a hero by continuing to model these good behaviors until we get through this pandemic:

  • Stay home if you are ill, except to receive medical care
  • Wear a mask when you're in public near others
  • Stay six feet away from others
  • Wash your hands frequently
  • Wipe down surfaces that may be infected
  • Avoid gatherings of 10 or more people"
 

bluebird

Major Contributor
I agree that it's not solely down to mask-wearing; distancing also definitely has a helpful effect. However, there is zero reason not to wear a mask when one is out in public, as it definitely does play a large part in preventing transmission of the Covid-19 virus.

Sweden was trying for a "herd immunity" situation, which was a bad idea and has led to more deaths than would otherwise have occurred.
 

mac

janitor
There's gradual change in the UK towards face coverings. They're now expected to be worn routinely in certain situations when only a little earlier they had been recommended and optional. As you know I favor everyone using them when they're in others' company.

The current problem in the UK is a rapidly-increasing number of infections with large numbers of them appearing in younger adults - 20s to 50s - but also beginning to be seen in those most at risk - old farts like me. Nursing homes are again causing worry and something new is the high number of infections of university entrants.

Both those situations have been forecast on numerous occasions through the summer and now practical ways of resolving these problems have to be found. Severe illness is very unusual in children and young adults but they are huge pools of potential infection for us oldies. :(

Our test, track and trace system is performing weakly with far too few tests being carried out with long waits for results, the virus still potentially being spread while waiting. Tracking and tracing is also poor with only a fifth of those needing to self isolate actually doing it. The number of local and city-wide restrictions are increasing and our capital city of London may be the next.

Our situation is quickly becoming serious. :( I fear this fall and winter may be every bit as bad as last spring turned out to be. And you can add to that the approaching end of the UK's transition period after leaving the European Union. I fear for my country in so many ways.
 

mac

janitor
Lest anyone thinks I'm forever bitching - assuming anyone other than a handful of members are following this thread - then may I make it plain that I'm NOT bitching about anything or anyone. I do, however, think the leaders of both the UK and the USA deserving of specific criticisms over certain of their words but essentially I'm recording my concerns about the present and particularly the future.
 

mac

janitor
Sweden was trying for a "herd immunity" situation, which was a bad idea and has led to more deaths than would otherwise have occurred.

In the early weeks of the lock-down a similar idea about so-called herd immunity was heard from some of our UK's scientists until it became obvious that approach was a non-flyer and highly dangerous.

Governments have their own scientific advisers and their own ideas about how to proceed; it is highly unlikely a single approach will prove right for every country or nation. Various policies will be, and already have been, adopted and it's totally inevitable that they won't all be right.

Mistakes will be made because humans are fallible but worse than that mistakes will be made because some leaders are flawed and pig-headed - despite most of them being well-informed. We can only hope they're not allowed to have their own way all the time.
 

bluebird

Major Contributor
In the early weeks of the lock-down a similar idea about so-called herd immunity was heard from some of our UK's scientists until it became obvious that approach was a non-flyer and highly dangerous.

Governments have their own scientific advisers and their own ideas about how to proceed; it is highly unlikely a single approach will prove right for every country or nation. Various policies will be, and already have been, adopted and it's totally inevitable that they won't all be right.

Mistakes will be made because humans are fallible but worse than that mistakes will be made because some leaders are flawed and pig-headed - despite most of them being well-informed. We can only hope they're not allowed to have their own way all the time.
Agreed.
 

Arsiie

New Member
And your infection rates are higher than in neighbouring Norway, I believe. In the UK our experts are following what happens in your country.
Hahaha I just say this words: dont visit sweden, because here they have zero rules when it comes too lockdown. Everything is almost open and you are not force too use mask:(.
 

mac

janitor
Folk in the UK can't take trips right now because we're having a mini-lockdown in the UK. Some thought the Swedish model for dealing with Covid-19 was a good one but it doesn't appear to be as good as it appeared to be earlier. The UK isn't doing well either - we have nothing to feel smug about.
 

Arsiie

New Member
Folk in the UK can't take trips right now because we're having a mini-lockdown in the UK. Some thought the Swedish model for dealing with Covid-19 was a good one but it doesn't appear to be as good as it appeared to be earlier. The UK isn't doing well either - we have nothing to feel smug about.
I saw on the news, they say nearly 60 thousand have died. Actually a whole lockdown dosent help either. The problem with sweden is we have too much freedom. We dont have any kind of rules if a pandemic appear, thats why the goverment cant lockdown. Its against the democratsy system. But right now many are afraid and staying home. Before you could met people only a group with 50 but today they change too 8, even they forbid alkohol after 22. Its a good start but i hope they at least can say wear mask.
 

mac

janitor
I saw on the news, they say nearly 60 thousand have died. Actually a whole lockdown dosent help either. The problem with sweden is we have too much freedom. We dont have any kind of rules if a pandemic appear, thats why the goverment cant lockdown. Its against the democratsy system. But right now many are afraid and staying home. Before you could met people only a group with 50 but today they change too 8, even they forbid alkohol after 22. Its a good start but i hope they at least can say wear mask.

Your rules / laws are now similar to those in the UK. Here there is much reluctance - from some age groups - to follow the rules and laws. Bars and pubs have had to close to prevent folk getting together without heeding social distancing. Non-essential shopping in stores/shops has been suspended until December. God knows what will happen at Christmas when folk are likely to disregard rules en masse.

There is also misinformation spreading rapidly and those who use the social media as their source of news can be misled by material known to be false at the time it's being posted. A certain presidential leader has enhanced a new career from putting out false material and encouraging division.
 
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