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Coronavirus conversations

Discussion in 'Carol and Mikey Q&A 'follow-on-discussions'' started by mac, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. mac

    mac Staff Member

    Any potential vaccine will have to be tested and assessed in some way. Azithromycin may prove effective but it hasn't been properly tested.

    That newspaper article reported:
    "Azithromycin has produced positive outcomes in some cases of Covid-19, particularly where there has been pneumonia and respiratory failure. In other cases results have been inconclusive, according to a HSE bulletin on its use, dated April 2nd.

    Prepared by the Covid-19 rapid evidence review group, the bulletin reports on two studies on the use of azithromycin with hydrochloraquin.

    It states: “There are inconsistencies in the study findings, with one study in 80 patients reporting broadly positive outcomes from the combination therapy, including negative viral load in 83 per cent of the cohort on day seven, while another study in 11 patients concluded there is no evidence of rapid anti-viral clearance or clinical benefit.”

    The Irish College of General Practitioners was not concerned at the ban on azithromycin for Covid-19 patients outside hospital. There is currently no evidence to support using any antibiotic to treat viral Covid-19 in patients in the community who are otherwise healthy...We do not need access to azithromycin for treatment of viral Covid-19 in the community.”


    In my view at this point the efficacy of any treatment is uncertain and will need careful observation. Techniques will likely need refinement I feel.

    As I wrote earlier, there appears to be no certain prospect of an effective treatment or a vaccine emerging in any foreseeable future - at the moment we can only hope.

    Based on previous experience experts suggest it may need 12 to 18 months to develop and mass produce vaccine if all goes well but maybe things will happen more quickly. Who knows?

    As I wrote on Roberta's blog recently, I hope for the best but try to be prepared for something less.....
     
  2. mac

    mac Staff Member

    As the days pass governments and other legislative bodies discuss, debate, consult, argue and agonize how best to deal with this pandemic. None of them can be sure that what they decide will be the least-bad alternative. Every plan will be wrong for some, right for some, potentially OKish for the rest. We could all probably think of worse case / best case outcomes and the likelihood is that the eventual outcome will be somewhere in-between those extremes.

    The more I follow the science the more I'm sure of one thing. Our world won't ever go back to where it was BC - in a very great number of ways rather than just a few. Some will be glad about that but they will also expect an improved, perhaps more spiritual world, that will emerge to replace the old one - hmmmm, I fear they'll be disappointed.

    Something that looks highly likely is that Covid 19 will remain a threat to public health indefinitely. With any luck effective treatments for those most badly affected will emerge but a vaccine may not be developed or not developed in time and/or the virus may mutate - as viruses often do. Just as with influenza, some individuals will be made very sick by Covid 19 and some will die. Others won't but just as with other viruses there's no certainty survivors will have immunity afterwards.

    At this point it appears avoiding becoming infected will be the least risky path for all of us. The logistics for that have yet to be developed but keeping one's distance - the optimum still to be worked out - looks likely to remain the front line approach. That and us all wearing face masks when we're near others. The masks each of us wears will help avoid infecting everyone we are near; the ones they wear will help them avoid infecting us.

    In time we'll figure out how careful we individually need to be with those we encounter but for now 'an abundance of caution' is the right path - as I see things.
     
  3. Ruby

    Ruby Established Member

    It's surprising how quickly seas and skies have become cleaner and nature has returned. Animals are quick to take advantage but I didn't expect to see deer in the streets. I find it unsettling somehow. I wonder how we'll all feel about getting back to our old polluting ways?
     
  4. mac

    mac Staff Member

    What you may be noticing is superficial albeit better than nothing. There's a huge mass of pollution already in both systems and that won't clear for a very long time. One short-lived benefit is that streets and roads will be less polluted by traffic. I say "short-lived" because traffic levels will soon begin - have already begun in the UK - to increase. Maybe to levels a little less than BC but inexorably back towards where we used to be once folk return to work and to less abnormal patterns of life. The natural world of plants and animals will benefit for a while because we're doing less to impact it - for now.


    Deer will wander anywhere they're able to but when less-abnormal levels of traffic resume I expect fewer will be seen. I don't see deer as I live in a town but out in the boonies we see 'em on occasion and anywhere they're being farmed, like at Chatsworth - follow the link, take a look at the video, come and visit. Park & estate

    I'd like to see us not returning to all of our polluting ways but that's an issue that will have to take second place to the immediate impacts of this pandemic. And dealing with those alone will result in us paying higher taxes. Reducing pollution levels will lead to higher taxation too. :(

    C'est la vie, c'est la guerre.....
     
  5. mac

    mac Staff Member

    It looks like the next couple of weeks will be testing times as restrictions are eased or lifted. Countries are using very different approaches, some very conservative others much more liberal. Statistics and modeling have become everyday news, at least in the UK and daily on TV our leaders explain their latest discussions and consultations and take questions from journalists and news reporters - every weekday and on Sunday approaching our PM will outline some easing of the lock-down in the UK. Then teams of specialists will closely monitor new infections and deaths and along with an app (presently under evaluation) and hundreds of individuals to trace-and-track contacts of anyone reporting symptoms the UK will try to limit the spread of the virus.

    We're expecting sound science will be leading our way out of the general lock down so that business, industry and education can all begin the long process of getting properly going again. And in all of this there is no perceptible spiritual consideration to any part of anything. I'm just sayin'.....
     
  6. Kurt

    Kurt Major Contributor

    It's quite hard to predict the future indeed however I also have personally come to regard it as a earthly cleansing of sorts. The implications of this virus on contemporary history could be extremely drastic... It honestly could lead to a repeat of the first half of the 20th century in a absolute worst case scenario.
     
  7. Kurt

    Kurt Major Contributor

    The rivers in my area are beginning to look crystal clear.
     
  8. mac

    mac Staff Member

    Two weeks on, my birthday just passed and about 9 weeks into lock-down since I made my last comment and much has changed.

    In the US there are nearly 40 million out of work and states are winding in markedly the restrictions imposed earlier - or at least some states are. Similar is happening in Europe and the east to varying degrees and all are hoping there won't be a break-out of the virus along with the need to re-impose restrictions. In the next few weeks we'll see the outcomes.

    Elsewhere work is flat out trying to create a vaccine and/or effective treatment of those who get infected and have severe symptoms. Crackpot ideas have been put forward and dismissed as unproven and potentially dangerous. In the main scientific advice is being heeded, death-rates are falling in medical institutions but in care homes things are far from rosy. Already politicians are attacking other politicians and organisations for perceived failures and lack of awareness etc. - plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose....

    Unity of purpose is there at local level but it's beginning to fragment on a national scale. There have been some positive outcomes - eg less pollution - but many negative aspects and more in prospect. Travel is still severely impacted with social distancing issues restricting vehicle capacity ie trains, planes, buses, trams In the UK hospitality businesses are mostly closed, the few operating are providing 'to-go' or delivery service.

    Folk can travel but must return to their registered home address the same day. There are no hotels, restaurants, pubs, bars or cafes open. Many shops and stores remain closed, online shopping is the way folk are buying. Delivery services are busy. Attractions are closed, some open spaces and parks are open.

    Resorts are discouraging visitors to avoid the risk of their becoming a local virus hotspot with limited local services becoming overwhelmed after a major influx of visitors. Resort car parks and toilets are closed and this public holiday weekend police will be mobilising patrols to turn away vehicles on routes to the coast. The message "We'd love you to visit but not yet." is one increasingly being put out by tourist boards.

    I don't know what's happening now I'm no longer in the USA because no-one is reporting here about their local situation.
     
  9. ravensgate

    ravensgate Regular Contributor

    I can only speak for NE Texas and the Little Rock regions. Cases are continuing to rise in NE Tx. Over 60 new cases in Titus county. Dallas county had an average of 200 new confirmed cases per week (over the last few weeks).
    Although there is much we do not know about this particular virus, I am baffled at the widespread willful ignorance and arrogance of many people in this area. It seems many of these people equated the loosening restrictions to a (magic) disappearance of the virus! Just this morning I noticed the good ol' Walmart and Sam's Club parking lots filled with cars, people going in and out of those stores as if every piece of merchandise and food could be had for zero dollars; nearly every person I saw wore no face mask. I continue to wear mine and will continue to do so for a quite a while longer.
    One day the COVID 19 dust will settle; we will then perhaps understand how little we really need and how much we actually have. I hope that realization (if it happens) will bring humanity closer, but I'm not holding my breath!
     
    Bill Z likes this.
  10. mac

    mac Staff Member

    I fear there will be new outbreaks but there's so much antipathy toward social distancing that it may prove impossible to get folk doing what they did - reluctantly - the first time.

    Face masks are as yet unproven for the general public's widespread use. I wear one because it helps protect others but here in the UK few others wear them. In fairness they've been in short supply and our government has been desperate to encourage folk not to buy masks and effectively be in competition with our medical and care services who are only just finding enough for themselves.

    In time I'm expecting/hoping that we'll all be encouraged to wear medical grade masks so when someone doesn't wear a mask the ones who do will have a measure of protection against any bugs they breathe out unhindered. I foresee that as essential to get public transport working again properly (lots of public transport in the UK) and also in getting air travel underway again. Maybe eventually no mask will mean no travel until some unforeseeable point when there's a minimal risk from this deadly virus.
     

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